The Ref Stop

Mex v Eng

According to AI

Average cautions are 2.74 per game lowest since 1974 and that's across more games.

Direct red cards have apparently tripled.

Compared to previous tournaments (Russia -2 and Qatar -3 ) the difference in volume games would expect to have seen 4-5 double yellows it the stats followed a similar pattern.

I think it's easy to draw stats comparisons but I can't think of any missed 2nd yellows (discounting then relatively unpunished dissent across the tournament).
 
The Ref Stop
JamesL said:
According to AI

Average cautions are 2.74 per game lowest since 1974 and that's across more games.

Direct red cards have apparently tripled.

Compared to previous tournaments (Russia -2 and Qatar -3 ) the difference in volume games would expect to have seen 4-5 double yellows it the stats followed a similar pattern.

I think it's easy to draw stats comparisons but I can't think of any missed 2nd yellows (discounting then relatively unpunished dissent across the tournament).
Click to expand...
Very valid point with last para - me neither (other than unpunished dissent).
 
JamesL said:
According to AI

Average cautions are 2.74 per game lowest since 1974 and that's across more games.

Direct red cards have apparently tripled.

Compared to previous tournaments (Russia -2 and Qatar -3 ) the difference in volume games would expect to have seen 4-5 double yellows it the stats followed a similar pattern.

I think it's easy to draw stats comparisons but I can't think of any missed 2nd yellows (discounting then relatively unpunished dissent across the tournament).
Click to expand...
I note that forensic re-rerefereeing and a far lower bar for physical offences in the modern game also have big impact here. Battle of Santiago in 62, even the Nuremburg Holland match from twenty years ago - of course players act different knowing there’s a red with a video;)
 
Bar the suspension of the ban for the American* player, I am not buying any other conspiracy theories. Stats are interesting but you can manipulate them to favour whatever point you are making, e.g., comparing tournament double yellow stats with 30+ round league stats, further more rules (not laws) on yellow cards being different.

Ignoring the American* ban suspension, 2 Game ban for this SFP is inline with expectations from a neutral viewpoint.

* not using the player's name but the country is deliberate.
 
one said:
Bar the suspension of the ban for the American* player, I am not buying any other conspiracy theories. Stats are interesting but you can manipulate them to favour whatever point you are making, e.g., comparing tournament double yellow stats with 30+ round league stats, further more rules (not laws) on yellow cards being different.

Ignoring the American* ban suspension, 2 Game ban for this SFP is inline with expectations from a neutral viewpoint.

* not using the player's name but the country is deliberate.
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t have a major issue with the 2 game ban in isolation, but without checking the actual figures, there’s have been around 7 or 8 red cards for SFP or violent conduct at the World Cup (and arguably violent conduct is worse than SFP).
All of them have maintained the standard 1 match ban except 3.
The well publicised American one.
The one that ultimately caused a very severe injury.
Jarrell Quansah’s.

We can debate the reasons behind the American one getting suspended.
There’s a very obvious reason why the one that caused the serious injury was extended.
I’m not seeing the reason Quansah’s was extended but none of the other SFP reds or violent conduct reds were 🤷‍♂️

Again, not saying there is a conspiracy… but there’s certainly a lack of logic in the approach
 
JamesL said:
I am absolutely not saying there is anything untoward here but no one in any organisation is doing anything to stop the narratives being fed.
Click to expand...
Spot on. Balogan’s and Quansah’s challenges are very different, but effectively no ban for the former and two games for the latter makes no sense.

If - and it’s a bloody big if in my view - FIFA’s disciplinary processes are truly impartial and free from external interference, I do wonder if Tommy T’s post-match comments didn’t help. It shouldn’t matter but working in this field in a different sport I know it does…
 
ladbroke8745 said:
Thats been my argument all along elsewhere.
Its not that the red card was wrong... it wasn't. It was wrong to not spot real time but also difficult for him being god knows how many yards away.
Whats the issue is that there has been 13 (straight) red cards, of which only 1 has been suspended - just so happens to be one given to a Team USA player after what is suggested to.be massive interference from the (host) countries president and a very good friend (been highlighted by both numerous times of this fact).
No 2nd yellow cards been issued resulting in a red, which after 96 games so far is quite astonishing statistically.
I know games dont run statistically but across the top 10 leagues, there is a double yellow card on average 16.6 games. We've had 96 games so youd expect to have, on average, maybe have seen 5.8 doubles. Even 1 would not be unrealistic. As soon as players are carded its like they can do whatever they like.

Anyway... sorry for stats.
Just that we are seemingly seeing caution to getting anyone suspended. 8 of the 13 red cards having come via VAR intervention.
Click to expand...
Binomial Distribution Calculator
Chance of a 1/16 outcome not happening over 96 attempts is 0.26%
However, it's human nature to focus on any pattern which is anomalous in hindsight, which frequently leads us to wrongly conclude that the outcome is not a function of randomness. Basically, we're crap at identifying what is truly random or not and wrongly conclude that outliers are manufactured
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top