As the referee you have to decide if that one defender that can possibly get to the ball will get there ahead of the attacker. He might have done, he might not have, so as an observer I would support either a caution or red card. It certainly isn't a fact, as you say, that the Welsh defender would be able to stop the attack or get to the ball. Stopping the attack is irrelevant, yes he could get between the attacker and goal, but he can't use his hands, and an attacker one on one with a defender with no keeper is a clear DOGSO. So that just leaves would he have got to the ball, and I'd say that is probably 50/50, which is why I would be going SFP as that is more obvious.Except that this was NOT in the penalty area and i don't care where this occurred be it in or out of the area. I literally pointed out to you why i feel this isn't DOGSO using the criteria for it in accordance with FIFA LOTG. You are now trying to argue schematics. The fact is, the Welsh defender would be either to A) Stop the attack or B) potentially get to the ball. Both of which negates DOGSO. You cannot discount that Welsh defender in deciding if it was DOGSO or not. The act itself, and i am sure we all agree, is Serious Foul Play, unless you don't think it meets that criteria either!