The Ref Stop

My last ever observation

I think @Big Cat is right ... for a change ;).

Once you get up to, say, 15 million people immunised then you have covered the most vulnerable 25% of the population. At that point, the balance of risk / reward from opening up the economy (and everything else) starts to tilt dramatically in favour of a significant decrease in restrictions. Whether that will happen early enough to 'save the season' will depend on how quickly we get there, when the season can be extended to and what form that finish will take. Likely it will vary significantly at different levels of the game and maybe in different parts of the country.
 
The Ref Stop
Big Cat said:
We don't need 30 million vaccinations to restart though. Restrictions will be tightened... and then lifted proportionately... as the number of vaccinations increments through the millions and the case numbers in the vulnerable groups progressively declines
I read somewhere that 12 million is a 'big number', in that it includes the most vulnerable and 70+ community (Wetherspoons clientele so to speak!)
I think I may be quoting Professor Alex Ferguson above

None of us have a crystal ball, so we can only take a punt. I'd be quite surprised if we don't see adult football back on the scene by first week of March. Maybe slightly earlier than that. The big worry being the revised R rate
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3 months apart now. Don't expect wholesale lifting until the most vulnerable have had both doses of the vacci e.
The virus can still be transmitted by vaccinated people so there will remain an element of risk.
 
JamesL said:
3 months apart now
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Not sure what you mean

Anyway, keep in mind that Boris (for all his misgivings) has leant towards minimising restrictions throughout the Pandemic
Also, unlike following the first Lockdown, exercise related activity is now treated as a priority when it comes to lifting restrictions. Almost first on the list. The revised R-rate is the killer blow, but we never know with certainty what's just round the corner. For instance, it wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility, for the Virus (new variant for example) to suddenly become less deadly. Now that we're 80% locked down, may as well go the whole hog IMO; with the exception of closing schools (which i'm strongly against)
 
Big Cat said:
Not sure what you mean

Anyway, keep in mind that Boris (for all his misgivings) has leant towards minimising restrictions throughout the Pandemic
Also, unlike following the first Lockdown, exercise related activity is now treated as a priority when it comes to lifting restrictions. Almost first on the list. The revised R-rate is the killer blow, but we never know with certainty what's just round the corner. For instance, it wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility, for the Virus (new variant for example) to suddenly become less deadly. Now that we're 80% locked down, may as well go the whole hog IMO; with the exception of closing schools (which i'm strongly against)
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What I mean was that the doses are now 3 months apart, which will significantly delay the reopening of everything imo vs everyone's current expectations
Whether that prevents the resumption of football or not I doubt, as you say its one of the things we have been able to keep going albeit sporadically.
Fully expecting a national lockdown to be announced imminently. Only obvious way forward at the minute.. Tier 4 not worth the paper its written on, nor anything below. It.. None have been effective at "controlling" the virus.
 
JamesL said:
What I mean was that the doses are now 3 months apart, which will significantly delay the reopening of everything imo vs everyone's current expectations
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I’m not so sure on that. There was someone on the radio this morning explaining that if you imagine the two doses giving 100% immunity, then the 1st one gives around 90% of that, with the 2nd one giving the remaining immunity.
 
LothianRef said:
I’m not so sure on that. There was someone on the radio this morning explaining that if you imagine the two doses giving 100% immunity, then the 1st one gives around 90% of that, with the 2nd one giving the remaining immunity.
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My understanding was that they are unclear as to whether the vaccine provides actual Immunity to the virus or whether it provides immunity to Symptoms and vaccinated people can still carry and transmit the virus.
The vaccine might protect the vulnerable from requiring hospitalisation/death but it may not stop them transmitting it. Hence, the possibility things won't happen as quickly as we expect. We will have to observe the data after one dose before we can say for sure what the long term plan is, until then it's conjecture.
Until we see the effects of the vaccine reducing hospitalizations, infection rates, and deaths we'll continue moving in and out of various restrictions. It won't be a case of x amount are now vaccinated and a blanket lifting.
There still remains the threat of mutations and understanding the mid to long term impact. We know it spreads more quickly, but we don't know if it is more severe or less severe or the same.
Again, something we will learn over time.
 
25 million in the government's 9 vaccination levels - that would cover everyone over 50. However, as Boris admitted, when saying that NHS 'could', I have come to hate that word since March btw!, vaccinate 2 million a week, that is only part of the story - supply, storage, logistics etc make that figure pretty ambitious.

If they manage 1 million every week from now, and they are not going to achieve that this week - that still takes a year to give everyone on the list the 2 doses.

Obviously as Big Cat says we have had various stages of lockdown, so I'm not saying no refereeing for a year - hope not anyway!
 
Scotland full national lockdown just announced.. Opposition calling for it in England.
Expect it to happen.
So we can kiss goodbye to refereeing in England until Feb at least.
 
Not sure why Boris has to go through the two or three day 'buttering up' process before making an announcement

Few points to note (my understanding anyway)
  • First jab is likely to give a very good level of protection
  • Immunity prevents disease which blocks transmission. Only those who contract the virus (symptomatic or not) can transmit it, so the jab and immunity blocks transmission
  • The Tiering did have an effect on reducing transmission of the original variant
  • The new variant infects kids more readily. The new variant took advantage of open schools to achieve dominance, whilst tiering supressed the original
I think this is all correct. Anyway, January is a complete 'right-off' and February is unlikely to be a 'laugh-a-minute'. Street Parties by March :confused:
 
Big Cat said:
Not sure why Boris has to go through the two or three day 'buttering up' process before making an announcement

Few points to note (my understanding anyway)
  • First jab is likely to give a very good level of protection
  • Immunity prevents disease which blocks transmission. Only those who contract the virus (symptomatic or not) can transmit it, so the jab and immunity blocks transmission
  • The Tiering did have an effect on reducing transmission of the original variant
  • The new variant infects kids more readily. The new variant took advantage of open schools to achieve dominance, whilst tiering supressed the original
I think this is all correct. Anyway, January is a complete 'right-off' and February is unlikely to be a 'laugh-a-minute'. Street Parties by March :confused:
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He's speaking at 8pm tonight.
 
bester said:
Where have you seen this? Thought it was unknown.
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Think it is unclear, but my next door neighbour is a biomedical scientist, works at our local/only hospital seemed to think that was the case.
Stands to reason, the vaccine gives you the profile to fight off the virus, for that to heppen it must first enter the body. Whether you become infectious or not is obviously the determining factor. Even so coupled with that, the virus is grounded and lives on surfaces for a period of time, so even if you can't catch it due to vaccination you can still move it around, eg you pick it up in a supermarket and take it home and people in your household could then catch covid from your door handle for example.

That's the key bot for me, you don't have to have covid to move it around. You can come into contact with it, move it, wash your hands and never get the disease yourself, but you could spread it to other people. That's why hand hygiene etc. Is so important.
 
The key thing is that the vulnerable people are vaccinated. It then really doesn't matter too much if the rest of the population are going around infecting each other as very few of them will get seriously ill, and importantly the hospitals won't be swamped. Although worrying news breaking today that they don't think the Oxford vaccine will work on the new South African strain and are urgently testing that out.

It may be that they decide that one dose is enough to give people sufficient protection to start opening things up. That's still 24 million to go though, and even if they get to the magic 2 million per week that's still 12 weeks away, and that is assuming they can manufacture them quickly enough, that takes us to the last week in March and for me that is going to be too late to restart.
 
RustyRef said:
The key thing is that the vulnerable people are vaccinated. It then really doesn't matter too much if the rest of the population are going around infecting each other as very few of them will get seriously ill, and importantly the hospitals won't be swamped. Although worrying news breaking today that they don't think the Oxford vaccine will work on the new South African strain and are urgently testing that out.

It may be that they decide that one dose is enough to give people sufficient protection to start opening things up. That's still 24 million to go though, and even if they get to the magic 2 million per week that's still 12 weeks away, and that is assuming they can manufacture them quickly enough, that takes us to the last week in March and for me that is going to be too late to restart.
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Hope you've never considered becoming a Samaritan 😢
That said, I'm not even sure Elite Sport is safe anymore
 
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Well I wonder what will happen now if the season is ended. I'm currently on the 7-6 scheme and I have done 19 middles and 7 Lines of which means I need one more middle to complete the basis of the scheme.

I'd be very upset to miss out because it's took me a couple of years to pluck up the courage to apply.
 
Jevon Swinscoe said:
Well I wonder what will happen now if the season is ended. I'm currently on the 7-6 scheme and I have done 19 middles and 7 Lines of which means I need one more middle to complete the basis of the scheme.

I'd be very upset to miss out because it's took me a couple of years to pluck up the courage to apply.
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I would imagine you'll be OK. Besides, almost certainly some more qualifying football to come, even if it doesn't happen 'til Easter
 
Hopefully to both of your comments. I'm missing having only just got my Nike roller bag of which is currently laying redundant!

Let's Just hope footballs back quicker than we needed
 
Jevon Swinscoe said:
Well I wonder what will happen now if the season is ended. I'm currently on the 7-6 scheme and I have done 19 middles and 7 Lines of which means I need one more middle to complete the basis of the scheme.
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You'll be fine. I've just had been on a teams chat with my CFA and they've said that because of the lockdown, they're likely to be more lenient. How far that will strech I don't know. I've only managed to get 3 games in so far, but had 2 assessments. Is that enough, we shall see.
 
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