How long before Coronavirus impacts Football?

[GraemeS]

Did you note the announcement today that we can expect an estimated 18 000 additional deaths due to cancer because of the effect of the pandemic on early identification and treatment of them......wonder what the guesstimate will be for additional deaths due to untreated/identified heart disease, stroke etc and ultimately suicide?

Yeah, those are all very valid questions. It's why the focus early on was so heavily on "flatten the curve" - overloading the healthcare systems doesn't just lead to direct coronavirus deaths, it could theoretically have a tonne of knock-on effects on other services.

 

[Sheffields Finest]

Remdesivir helped more than 50% of severe coronavirus patients recover

Gilead Sciences announced Wednesday that more than half of the 397 severely ill coronavirus patients it treated with the antiviral Ebola drug Remdesivir were discharged from hospitals.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Hopeful stuff!! Not a cure, maybe a helpful treatment aid!!

 

[Mintyref]

Remdesivir helped more than 50% of severe coronavirus patients recover

Gilead Sciences announced Wednesday that more than half of the 397 severely ill coronavirus patients it treated with the antiviral Ebola drug Remdesivir were discharged from hospitals.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Hopeful stuff!! Not a cure, maybe a helpful treatment aid!!

But was that just chance and they'd have recovered anyway, which is why you need the proper clinical trial

 

[Mintyref]

Yeah, those are all very valid questions. It's why the focus early on was so heavily on "flatten the curve" - overloading the healthcare systems doesn't just lead to direct coronavirus deaths, it could theoretically have a tonne of knock-on effects on other services.

I've always said the cure will kill more than the virus.....

 

[GraemeS]

I've always said the cure will kill more than the virus.....

Not what I was saying....

 

[Mintyref]

Not what I was saying....

I know......

 

[RustyRef]

For those that continue to think they are safe unless they are old or unwell, yesterday London lost Jermaine Wright, council member, RefsSec of the Hackney & Leyton Sunday League and one of the nicest guys you could ever meet who gave everything to football. He was pretty much known as Mr Hackney Marshes as he was there every weekend without fail organising things,

Active referee aged 45 with no underlying illness that I know of. He's the fourth referee I know that has sadly died, this really isn't just the old person thing that some people would like to have you believe.

RIP Jermaine.

 

[Big Cat]

For those that continue to think they are safe unless they are old or unwell, yesterday London lost Jermaine Wright, council member, RefsSec of the Hackney & Leyton Sunday League and one of the nicest guys you could ever meet who gave everything to football. He was pretty much known as Mr Hackney Marshes as he was there every weekend without fail organising things,

Active referee aged 45 with no underlying illness that I know of. He's the fourth referee I know that has sadly died, this really isn't just the old person thing that some people would like to have you believe.

RIP Jermaine.

Unfortunate. Nobody is safe, it's just a numbers game. Less than 1 in 200 healthy 45 year old's might expect to die
(male & obese being notable risk factors)
Sad times

 

[Justylove]

Unfortunate. Nobody is safe, it's just a numbers game. Less than 1 in 200 healthy 45 year old's might expect to die
(male & obese being notable risk factors)
Sad times

That's one of the problems, until more research is done (which sadly needs time and more deaths) we're really guessing at those that are higher risk.

At the moment it seems like some of the factors are sex, age, weight and ethnicity, now whether some or all of these are related to socioeconomic factors or genetics is the bit that we don't know.

Likewise, correlating actual deaths versus infection rates in each of these groups will be important.

I'd suspect that eventually we'd come out with a profile like the example:

"If you are a BAME male between 40 and 55 with a BMI >30 then you have a normal risk of contracting Covid, however once you've got it you have a much higher risk of it escalating."

Having that type of profile would help to then take preventative measures to hopefully stop it leading to death (example giving Oxygen or Ventilation at an earlier stage of symptoms) within those that fit into that category.

 

[Texan]

I think all this BAME, obese, age, sex, hair colour, number of toes, blah blah blah is just playing with statistics.
And dependant on whichever media outlet - albeit TV, newspapers, internet, Facebook, etc etc - all trying to outdo each other by sensationalising everything.
Everyday sees yet another major "catastrophe" - PPE, NHS beds, ventilators, charities, other ailments, care homes, and so on. And I hate the way many are looking to try and gain political points whilst stating they are simply "bring the government to account". We are in this together.
This virus is like cancer - it takes no prisoners - and can strike at any age, sex, colour or creed.
I want this over ASAP. I want football back, I'm sick of the staying in, limited shopping, limited (rather non-existent) sport, constant repeats, constant sensationalising (I'm repeating myself now - that's why I've stopped watching the news), lets just get this done and back to some normality. Maybe I'll wake up and it'll all be a dream - but I doubt it.
Stay safe everyone

 

[Peter Grove]

I think all this BAME, obese, age, sex, hair colour, number of toes, blah blah blah is just playing with statistics.

So you think that the facts that in the UK, less than 1% of CoVid-19 deaths involve people under 30 and 90% of deaths occur in people over 60, or that women only account for 37% of deaths worldwide, is just the product of someone "playing with statistics"?

 

[Justylove]

I think all this BAME, obese, age, sex, hair colour, number of toes, blah blah blah is just playing with statistics.
And dependant on whichever media outlet - albeit TV, newspapers, internet, Facebook, etc etc - all trying to outdo each other by sensationalising everything.
Everyday sees yet another major "catastrophe" - PPE, NHS beds, ventilators, charities, other ailments, care homes, and so on. And I hate the way many are looking to try and gain political points whilst stating they are simply "bring the government to account". We are in this together.
This virus is like cancer - it takes no prisoners - and can strike at any age, sex, colour or creed.
I want this over ASAP. I want football back, I'm sick of the staying in, limited shopping, limited (rather non-existent) sport, constant repeats, constant sensationalising (I'm repeating myself now - that's why I've stopped watching the news), lets just get this done and back to some normality. Maybe I'll wake up and it'll all be a dream - but I doubt it.
Stay safe everyone

Wow where to start....

There are some initial signs that it does impact different parts of society to differing degrees.

Take the fact that it seems to impact BAME males more than others (Race or Sex), that could be down to any or all of the following:

1) Some form of genetic "perfect storm" where the virus gains a stronger foothold
2) Males are less thorough in washing their hands than females (speaking from having a boy who thinks a 1 second rinse under the cold tap is sufficient)
3) Those from BAME backgrounds have a higher concentration of living in accommodation that have communal areas (blocks of flats with lifts and stairwells), leading to a greater chance of contracting it from surfaces. (Note this is an example, I have no idea and haven't researched the truth of this)

Any, all or none of the above could be factors, it's only with research that we'll ever find out whether it's something clinical or social that causes it.

Ref the comparison with cancer, I only partially agree, yes it doesn't discriminate, however there are things that will raise your risk factor of getting certain types of cancer. If you're out sunbathing every chance you get, without using sunscreen, then you are at a higher risk of getting skin cancer than if you don't go out as much or use sunscreen. Likewise if you are fair skinned then it seems the chances are higher.

Correlation between smoking and lung cancer is another example.

Finally I'm old enough to remember when HIV/AIDS hit the news (reminded recently watching the film Bohemian Rhapsody). When that first came to the public consciousness it was commonly known as "the gay man's disease" because almost all cases were initially in that demographic. Of course research eventually showed that genetically gay men were not more likely to contract it and what they eventually learned thorough research was that not only was it transmitted through sexual contact, but could also be passed on through blood transfusion and down to newborns through their mothers being infected. But what we know about that disease took us years, if not decades to learn.

Even if we say this started in December last year, it's a disease that is less than 6 months old, yet it seems like expectations are that we can have all of the answers immediately to something that historically has taken years or even decades to understand.

 

[Sheffields Finest]

I think all this BAME, obese, age, sex, hair colour, number of toes, blah blah blah is just playing with statistics.
And dependant on whichever media outlet - albeit TV, newspapers, internet, Facebook, etc etc - all trying to outdo each other by sensationalising everything.
Everyday sees yet another major "catastrophe" - PPE, NHS beds, ventilators, charities, other ailments, care homes, and so on. And I hate the way many are looking to try and gain political points whilst stating they are simply "bring the government to account". We are in this together.
This virus is like cancer - it takes no prisoners - and can strike at any age, sex, colour or creed.
I want this over ASAP. I want football back, I'm sick of the staying in, limited shopping, limited (rather non-existent) sport, constant repeats, constant sensationalising (I'm repeating myself now - that's why I've stopped watching the news), lets just get this done and back to some normality. Maybe I'll wake up and it'll all be a dream - but I doubt it.
Stay safe everyone

Coronavirus: Black African deaths three times higher than white Britons - study

A study says the higher risk to some ethnic groups cannot be explained by location or age.

www.bbc.co.uk

Maybe whatever happens in a Texan dream should stay in a Texan dream

 

[Texan]

Quoting Mark Twain "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
I am saying that ANYONE can get COVID19. Agreed there are higher risk groups. But I am saying that there is a mass feeding frenzy within the media. There is a mass of contradiction throughout and a huge amount of political gain being attempted.

So how will football restart? Will they ban the less wealthy, over 60s, males, obese, BAME community, and people with "underlying conditions" because they have a higher risk of catching COVID19?

 

[Big Cat]

Quoting Mark Twain "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
I am saying that ANYONE can get COVID19. Agreed there are higher risk groups. But I am saying that there is a mass feeding frenzy within the media. There is a mass of contradiction throughout and a huge amount of political gain being attempted.

So how will football restart? Will they ban the less wealthy, over 60s, males, obese, BAME community, and people with "underlying conditions" because they have a higher risk of catching COVID19?

There's probably greater overlap between BAME ethnicity and other risk factors, but it's likely genetics too. No single answer
Agreed. Political Point scoring left, right and centre... between politicians, but also the media
I wouldn't read too much into your post #490. The boredom has caught up with me in the last few days too
The EPL is meeting today. I'm not holding my breath. Besides anything else, I don't think society would condone any resumption for some time yet

 

[Texan]

We all want football to start - but safely. Life is far more important than football despite what Bill Shankly said.
The pressure on the government from the Premier League, EFL, Sky, BT etc must be immense. As once football starts (with or without crowds) then all sport will argue they too can start.
#staysafe everyone

 

[Brian Hamilton]

Quoting Mark Twain "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
I am saying that ANYONE can get COVID19. Agreed there are higher risk groups. But I am saying that there is a mass feeding frenzy within the media. There is a mass of contradiction throughout and a huge amount of political gain being attempted.

So how will football restart? Will they ban the less wealthy, over 60s, males, obese, BAME community, and people with "underlying conditions" because they have a higher risk of catching COVID19?

Nice attribution in error there chief. https://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm

 

[santa sangria]

... that all went a bit weird. Football, like other activities may well start without the over 70s in a lot of countries, in the same same way as teachers with asthmatic conditions may not go back to the classroom in a lot of countries.

And, because decisions about Covid and our lives are being made by politicians for political gain (particularly so in the US and UK, also see Brazil, Turkey etc.) - we have to discuss, analyse and question these political decisions - we can’t ignore a leader that encourages armed protests against political opponents or awards govt contacts to cronies under the cover of Covid!

Back to the plot:
La Liiga have a green light to test and train from Monday with a view to finishing the season.
Ligue Un has decided on a points per game system and ended the season now with promotion and relegation.

Still hope then for Klopp to lift the 2020 prem trophy wiki asterisk!

 

[Sheffields Finest]

Coronavirus deaths TWICE as high in poor areas of England and Wales

The map, created by the Office for National Statistics, shows deprived regions in England and Wales are suffering 55 deaths per 100,000 people, compared to 25 deaths in affluent areas.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Now there is an interactive map!!!

 

[Peter Grove]

Take the fact that it seems to impact BAME males more than others (Race or Sex), that could be down to any or all of the following:

1) Some form of genetic "perfect storm" where the virus gains a stronger foothold

The reason why males in general are more susceptible than females and why children overwhelmingly suffer only mild (or no) symptoms is probably linked to the role of the angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2). Medical research papers show that ACE2 is the main host cell receptor used by SARS-CoV-2 to replicate itself inside the human body but that it also provides a protective effect in the lungs. Children have a higher level of ACE2 than adults and women have a higher level than men. See paper below explaining this.

COVID-19 Infection and Circulating ACE2 Levels: Protective Role in Women and Children

Although, as also mentioned in that paper, some studies done in China seem to indicate different levels of expression of ACE2 in different ethnic groups within Asia, indicating genetic factors may play a role, many commentators and analysts have pointed to social and economic factors as a likely explanation for the increased susceptibility of ethnic minorities to the virus. I'm not sure about the data for the UK but in the US at least, minority groups have higher rates of diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease, underlying conditions that are known to exacerbate the effects of this virus.