World Rankings were very predictive in the last World Cup, however if the rankings had been used as a guide for betting purposes this time round, heavy losses would have been incurred over the last few weeks!
Angleterre v Belgique
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Yampy
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I have a method which would have yielded 27 wins from 44 bets. But I've no idea if that would give a positive ROI, produce a value A/E or have a solid Archie score to make it a valid system.
D
Deleted member 3014
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How about when the tournament kicked off you could get around 7/2 for a penalty in a game so put £1 on get £4.50 back.
Now you would do well to find 7/4 for a penalty £1 on gets you £2.75 back.
But it wasn’t until around 10 or so pens into the tournament that they decided to slash the prices of a penalty.
Think there has been 18 pens so far not sure how many games have had pens as some have had more than 1 but I would imagine if you had of staked £1 per game in the group stages for a penalty to be awarded then you would almost certainly be in profit.
Now you would do well to find 7/4 for a penalty £1 on gets you £2.75 back.
But it wasn’t until around 10 or so pens into the tournament that they decided to slash the prices of a penalty.
Think there has been 18 pens so far not sure how many games have had pens as some have had more than 1 but I would imagine if you had of staked £1 per game in the group stages for a penalty to be awarded then you would almost certainly be in profit.
Yampy
RefChat Addict
At 7/2 you'd expect there to be 10.66 penalties in the 48 games so far.
At 7/4, this increases to 17.45.
I use Actual/Expected (A/E) to assess my value. There's been 24 penalties in 20 games so, 20 is you final figure. Therefore, 7/2 is brilliant value with an A/E of 1.87 (20/10.66) but 7/4 is poor value (albeit profitable) at 1.14.
But all that's in the past, it's the future that matters.
RefJef
RefChat Addict
I can’t say anything about the last World Cup, but FIFA rankings were a poor guide for Euro 2016.
I did some analysis on them - you can read about it in my blog post here: http://www.amathsteacherwrites.co.uk/ranking-the-rankings/
The bottom line is I used something called Spearman Rank Correlation Coffeicient - a value of 1 would show perfect agreement between ranking and final position, a value above about 0.75 ish would suggest good corelation, the actual value turned out to be about 0.34: not much better than random.
But that is one of the beauties of Football, it is the most unpredictable of sports. E.g. the favourites/better team win least often than in other sports, and this is what makes it exciting to watch.
You're right! The rankings were pants for Euro 2016
I think 2014 was a one off because teams like USA, Swiss, Chile and Belgium did well
I'm a bit of a gambler you see...