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Agree. That is a classic case of deliberately handling the ball.
I tend to agree with you, though I think there are plenty of Referees out there at many different levels whereby even if you took away the immediateness, they would penalise for handball - whether the arms are in a natural position or not. They would not likely consider the criteria under Law, even though they should. However, there will be some debate about ‘natural position’ viz reflex v deliberate action, though this is one reason why immediateness is included within the Laws. In one sense, it does seem harsh to allow the goal to be scored & has potential for the Referees Match Control to be placed at risk.I do find it interesting that when deciding ‘obviousness’ we have now been given 5 factors to consider but with ‘immediateness’ we are left to our own devices!
For what it’s worth, I’d see the OP as immediate. But the video is great as it forces a choice around immediacy as there’s no way that should be called a penalisable handball otherwise
I think many football stakeholders would agree with you .. it's fair to question whether a player should gain an advantage from the ball hitting their hand / arm. However, how I justify the current approach is to say that (ignoring the OP 'goal' exception) it is completely fair that we only penalise players who have done something wrong. As for 'complicated', I believe many referees, pundits, ,media, fans etc overcomplicate the current law.I still feel like, if we're going to have a complicated handball law with exceptions and considerations, the degree to which the arm touch advantages the team in question should be put in to law as a factor.

Very fair. Certainly if they've gained a significant advantage and you're unsure about the 'deliberateness' then safe refereeing would be to give the FK!While never explicitly in the Laws (other than the new tweak for a goal scorer), I think an advantage gained has always lurked beneath the surface as a clue that the handling may have been deliberate.
If you flip the players around so to speak and that striker is now the last defender in a DOGSO situation, is that a red card and sending off? I said when they were tweaking the Laws there were a few ways to go about it but for me it's become too complex. Agreed with the bit in bold thoughThe player has put his arms there before the ball is kicked, therefore a deliberate handball (ie arm to ball) is not possible. I can understand an argument that the arms are in an unnatural position. However, the arm position has absolutely not made their body ‘unnaturally bigger’ .. if the arms weren’t there then the ball would simply strike the torso instead.
My opinion is 100% no ... on 2 counts. Firstly, I don't see it as a penalisable handball offence. Secondly, even if you choose to give a handball, unless you believe it has stopped the ball going directly into the goal, then there is no Goal Scoring Opportunity as the striker is never going to recover control of the ball.If you flip the players around so to speak and that striker is now the last defender in a DOGSO situation, is that a red card and sending off? I said when they were tweaking the Laws there were a few ways to go about it but for me it's become too complex. Agreed with the bit in bold though