The Ref Stop

How long before Coronavirus impacts Football?

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RustyRef said:
The way this is going football isn't going to be returning in the UK any time soon, especially if people don't quickly start changing their behaviour and listen to advice. People will say it is the British spirit, that is fine in a war but not in a virus outbreak.
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Agreed.

If you want to see "British wartime spirit" in the 21st century - look no further than the attitudes of people in our supermarkets on a daily basis.

"Pfheck you and I'm alright Jack" is the mood it seems ...
 
The Ref Stop
I can understand why so many people flocked to parks and such like over the weekend. The outdoors being a 'safe place' an'all. They just made a mistake.
It's not folk strolling around national parks that will lead us to the inevitable, Boris has been buttering us up for lockdown regardless.
Whilst lives will be saved, the numbers may be misleading and I remain concerned that the socioeconomic impact is not being sufficiently accounted for. In fact, I'm not hearing any consideration for the misery incurred by millions
 
Big Cat said:
Whilst lives will be saved, the numbers may be misleading and I remain concerned that the socioeconomic impact is not being sufficiently accounted for. In fact, I'm not hearing any consideration for the misery incurred by millions
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Agreeed this is a real concern. I know people who are losing jobs. The govt need to step in and provide a minimum salary to all those affected. Shops may soon need to be on to rationing and home deliveries for the vulnerable.

All governments are in an impossible situation though. Throw the nation's health (and healthcare workers/systems) under the bus and 'allow' hundreds of thousands to die or destroy your economy?!?

If they didn't shut down though we would probably all shut down ourselves anyway and society would go to the wall as we scramble for resources (presumably loo roll being the currency of the dystopian future). Better that it be imposed? A very tough call.
 
Mintyref said:
And to some extent why should they? That's no worse than the flu......the so called experts driving these numbers have a history of over egging the dangers from their statistical analysis. At some time I expect to be exposed to this virus, I may already have.
Until we have an reasonably accurate count of the number infected we will never know the true mortality rate.....just saying...
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It's true we may not have the true mortality rate yet but that's also true to a certain extent of the flu. I've had flu-like symptoms many, many times in my life but not once have I ever been tested to confirm I had it, even when I've gone to a doctor (and I usually don't). So the true number of flu cases is also likely to be higher than we think.

We can only go by the official figures and although there's a pretty wide variation, even in the country with the lowest mortality rate (South Korea) the rate has now passed 1%, which makes it ten times more lethal than the flu. In Italy, the mortality rate is over 8% - or 80 times more deadly than seasonal influenza.

The other thing is, the rate of infection and the mortality rate for flu is well-known and pretty much stable. We know roughly what the rate and number of infections are going to be in any given year, and that they won't go above a certain level. We don't know that for this virus - all we do know is that the percentage of the population infected is going to continue to rise, as are the deaths.

According to a graph shown in the Financial Times today, the rate of increase of deaths from coronavirus in the UK is currently rising faster than Italy's and every other country in the world except Spain was, at this same stage.
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What I don't get, is how this will pan out in the long run. Even if the measures in place are successful, as soon as we go back to work, the virus will explode globally again until most of the population has had it. I'd really like to see how the models look long term. The only factor that seems to be considered at the moment is shielding the NHS, but surely there's countless other variables (short & long term) to be equated for
 
Big Cat said:
What I don't get, is how this will pan out in the long run. Even if the measures in place are successful, as soon as we go back to work, the virus will explode globally again until most of the population has had it. I'd really like to see how the models look long term. The only factor that seems to be considered at the moment is shielding the NHS, but surely there's countless other variables (short & long term) to be equated for
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There are ideas about cycles (annual, quarterly) but no one knows. If China starts relaxing restrictions in Wuhan then at least there will be some kind of model to track.
But only one area of China has actually been through this "first phase". It's not over in Italy, hasn't even got going in US and UK. Let alone Africa.
Until there is a vaccine, or a reliable accessible treatment path for the vulnerable, it's hard to imagine any mass gatherings. Or international travel. Iber Cascais rescheduled for December. Would be great but I wouldn't bet on it.

The articles about the future of live sports crowds are starting to come out. Is it going to be possible to have a stadium full of people anywhere in the world this year, next year?

I think, in the UK, now is perhaps not the time to look ahead though, now is the time to get everybody staying home. Right now. The state must be allowed to focus resources on the heath service. The last thing the country needs is to have to waste people on closing pubs, or beaches or moving youth of street corners.
 
What happened to the Government's stance that banning large gatherings (like football matches) wouldn't be of benefit?
This directive (with hindsight) is comparable with the nonsense Trump is spouting daily
 
Big Cat said:
Eye watering
Not surprised this hasn't been discussed publicly. Not sure folk could digest it
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This explains where a lot of numbers, estimates and ideas have come from, and also why there have been a few mentions of some kind of cycle starting.
The new one for me was the idea of extreme isolation measures for 2/3 of the time until a vaccine is available (after 18 months plus). Wowzwers.

...the conclusion "in the last few days" dated 16.3 also explains the UK govt U-turn. TL;DR the paper says that before this they had underestimated the demand for ICU beds by half, and without dramatic action April would see ICU beds oversubscribed by more than 8-fold.

Yeah it's truly sobering reading.
 
Sheffields Finest said:
Unless you're going to manual work!! Its better but still not total lockdown!!
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Also very unclear as to how they are going to police it, so mention of large fines that have been brought in with other countries. I can see people still carrying on as normal and then just taking their slap on the wrist if they get caught.
 
Can’t visit family who don’t live with you.

Right so what compensation will I get for being unable to see my daughter for a month?

I am in serious danger here of going over the edge. Please don’t give me any “greater good” stuff. I am in pieces. 😭
 
RustyRef said:
Also very unclear as to how they are going to police it, so mention of large fines that have been brought in with other countries. I can see people still carrying on as normal and then just taking their slap on the wrist if they get caught.
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Could be quite substantial fines if we follow the lead of some European countries.

Speaking to a guy in Spain they're handing out €600 fines for people put and about without a valid reason, and for things like having more than 1 person in a car etc.

Taiwan fined a man $33,000 for "maliciously" breaking his quarantine/self isolation.

The problem is that there are a lot of people who won't take this seriously until it directly affects them.
 
Tealeaf said:
Can’t visit family who don’t live with you.

Right so what compensation will I get for being unable to see my daughter for a month?

I am in serious danger here of going over the edge. Please don’t give me any “greater good” stuff. I am in pieces. 😭
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I think all of us are going to have to rely on "virtual contact". Skype, Zoom, etc, not good I know but it is the only option. These steps are still vastly less restrictive than other countries have taken, hopefully they work otherwise it will get even worse.
 
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