Some supply leagues are in such a mess I believe the FA have given dispensation for L4s that haven't passed the fitness test to be appointed. One league had less than 50% of their games covered by L4s last weekend.
I don't see how they wait until December for interim 5 to 4 promotions, the situation is critical at the moment and isn't going to get better by itself. I predicted this might happen, it isn't just fitness test related but rather a lot of referees that were in the system appeared to have decided not to come back after lockdown. There could be any number of reason for this, including ...
- lost fitness over lockdown and can't pass the test - there a lot of referees that do minimal fitness training even at L4 and above and use the act of refereeing to keep their fitness levels up. Take that away for a year and easy to see why they will struggle. Even if they do normally train, the closure of gyms for months on end could have the same effect.
- apprehension about returning whilst infection rates are high, not wanting to catch it and pass onto family. Realistically infection rates will remain high for at least the majority of this season so that isn't going away.
- realised they haven't missed it as much as they should have during the enforced absence, which sets alarm bells ringing.
- started working Saturdays during lockdown and realised how much more money they can earn. That was one thing I found when I was injured, when refereeing I'd had to rely on my colleagues to cover out of hours work, but when I did it I'd earn four times more than refereeing, and still spend less time away from the house. Plus I didn't feel as guilty about relying on my work colleagues so much.
There's probably a lot more reasons as well, but the bottom line is this shortage won't just end itself.