Waffling
Last year, in both the media and on this forum, there was a heavy suggestion that referees were not giving the correct call and relying on VAR. From an exact point of view, that is technically the point of VAR, to make up in case referees make mistakes. However it was more of a suggestion that referees were not giving obvious red cards and penalties, instead relying on VAR to make the call for these KMIs. There was argument what caused this. Was this was a Mike Riley directive, don't make any risky calls to put the entertainment of the game into jeopardy? Was it all a bunch of media rubbish, that there was nothing occurring and it was just confirmation bias (people only noticed when VAR awarded the red and not when refs awarded it.) Or was there an unconscious bias. After all, refs tend to only give reds and penalties if they are 100% sure,, due to the game changing nature of these calls, so could a ref not be sure and think "well if I'm wrong VAR will help."
I've always liked stats so when this argument came up for the five millionth time on a thread last year, I posted some stats to see if there was any truth to this thinking. The stats backed up the idea, as less red cards and penalties were awarded on the field after VAR than it was pre VAR. But stats cannot always tell a story, and the argument could have been made that players were getting better behaved and we would not be able to tell for certain unless the exact same games were played. The argument stopped and whilst I was sat bored in my uni library procrastinating I realised I hadn't heard that argument in a long time, had this "effect" stopped. I did the stats midway through last season so added this seasons stats and last season's to see if there is any truth to the idea that refs gave less reds and penalties on field than before VAR.
So instead of starting on my uni essay I looked at the Ribena bottle from my meal deal and realised the company was based at Stockley Park, just like our good friend VAR. I decided to do what any sane person would and write an essay on VAR for a referee forum instead. Feel free to agree, disagree or completely ignore and wonder what on earth I was thinking writing this, but I just wanted to get my thoughts and results at. I will add the disclaimer that the red card stats do not take into account those given as second yellows which seeing as they aren't affected by VAR means these stats aren't entirely true. I couldn't easily find the data and seeing as this isn't a dissertation I didn't go to my maximum effort to find those stats. I will also disclaim that I often refer to things as "given by VAR." I am not an idiot I understand VAR isnt some magic machine that overturns ref calls and that it is still the referee team who decide, its just easier to refer to it that way. But anyway, here are the stats.
Stats
I looked at the three seasons before VAR for my control data. On average 42.3 red cards were given (range 39-47) and 96.3 penalties (range 80-106) were awarded per season.
In 19-20, 44 red cards were awarded. Only 38 were awarded by the on field ref, with 3 of those overturned and 9 given by VAR. In 20-21, 47 red cards were awarded, with just 32 awarded by the on field ref, 2 overturned by VAR and 17 awarded by VAR. In 21-22, 42 red cards were awarded, with 32 awarded by the on field ref, 3 overturned, and 13 awarded by VAR.
So in total, 44.3 red cards have been shown on average in the 3 full seasons since VAR was introduced. This is relatively similar to the pre VAR average and falls into the range. The amount of red cards shown in the 3 seasons also falls into the range. However, in all 3 seasons, the amount of red cards shown on field is below the range, as is the average shown of 34. This data seems to indicate that referees were giving less red cards than they were before the introduction of VAR, despite the fact that with VAR the amount of red cards shown is similar to pre VAR. This helps the idea that referees were relying on VAR as a safety net. As does the fact that only 8 red cards were overturned by VAR in those 3 seasons, compared to 39 that VAR gave a red card to. Overall in the 149 red card situations, the referee was determined to have made a CLEAR AND OBVIOUS error in 31.5% of them.
As for penalties, in 19-20, 92 were awarded, with 77 awarded on the field, 7 overturned and 22 given by VAR. In 20-21, 124 penalties were awarded, with 117 penalties given on field, 22 of those overturned, and 29 of those given by VAR. In 21-22, 103 penalties were awarded, with 74 awarded on the field, 9 overturned, and 38 given by VAR.
The apparently insane penalty year of 20-21 hurts the ability to take findings here. Our average is 106.3 penalties awarded, which is higher than our range showing more penalties have been awarded since the introduction of VAR. Barring 20-21 which is above the range, the other two seasons all fall into the range as well. In 19-20 and 21-22 the amount of penalties awarded on field was below average and below the range, but this wasn't the case in 21-22, which actually saw more given. The average on field penalties awarded was 89.3 which is still below our average, but makes it hard to draw a complete conclusion as it is still in the range. Overall we have 408 penalty situations here, with the referee determined to have made a CLEAR AND OBVIOUS error in 31.1% of them. 38 penalties were overturned and 89 given by VAR
With 3 seasons of pre VAR and 3 seasons of post VAR, what can we conclude. The average amount of red cards and penalties shown on field has been less in the VAR seasons than it was pre VAR. With VAR however, the numbers are relatively similar, perhaps suggesting it is not a case of players getting better behaved. With penalties its harder to conclude due to the average still falling into the range, but with red cards the data is clear. Also the amount of penalties and red cards given by VAR is much much higher than the amount of penalties and red cards overturned by VAR. To play devils advocate I will argue both sides. In theory you would expect the numbers to be similar as refs should make an equal number of clear and obvious errors on both sides. The fact they don't suggests they are relying on a VAR safety net. However, as said earlier, refs will give pens and red cards if they are 100% certain, so it makes sense that they would be unlikely to make a clear and obvious error when awarding one. The other factor to look at is the high amount of CLEAR AND OBVIOUS errors made by the ref, not just mistakes, but clear and obvious ones. However of course the data does not look at every time a player goes down in the box and the ref waves it off and is backed by VAR, so the actual number will be lower, although VAR being involved to such a high extent is still concerning.
However, this argument has been less heard this season, so have things changed? There have been 231/380 games played this season, and we have seen 19 red cards and 52 penalties. This puts us on track for 31.3 red cards and 85.5 penalties for the season. The first thing to conclude would be the large reduction in red cards compared to previous seasons, and the fact the penalties awarded is less than what we have seen. However looking at the VAR stats, 17 red cards on field were awarded by refs, with 2 overturned and 4 given by VAR and of the penalties, 44 pens were given on field, with 9 overturned and 17 given by VAR. The difference between overturned and given is definitely less but its hard to actually draw conclusions without the full season and frankly, I am now questioning why I have wasted a good hour of my life on this.
Discuss what you want, ignore it, question my life choices idc, just thought these stats were interesting.
Last year, in both the media and on this forum, there was a heavy suggestion that referees were not giving the correct call and relying on VAR. From an exact point of view, that is technically the point of VAR, to make up in case referees make mistakes. However it was more of a suggestion that referees were not giving obvious red cards and penalties, instead relying on VAR to make the call for these KMIs. There was argument what caused this. Was this was a Mike Riley directive, don't make any risky calls to put the entertainment of the game into jeopardy? Was it all a bunch of media rubbish, that there was nothing occurring and it was just confirmation bias (people only noticed when VAR awarded the red and not when refs awarded it.) Or was there an unconscious bias. After all, refs tend to only give reds and penalties if they are 100% sure,, due to the game changing nature of these calls, so could a ref not be sure and think "well if I'm wrong VAR will help."
I've always liked stats so when this argument came up for the five millionth time on a thread last year, I posted some stats to see if there was any truth to this thinking. The stats backed up the idea, as less red cards and penalties were awarded on the field after VAR than it was pre VAR. But stats cannot always tell a story, and the argument could have been made that players were getting better behaved and we would not be able to tell for certain unless the exact same games were played. The argument stopped and whilst I was sat bored in my uni library procrastinating I realised I hadn't heard that argument in a long time, had this "effect" stopped. I did the stats midway through last season so added this seasons stats and last season's to see if there is any truth to the idea that refs gave less reds and penalties on field than before VAR.
So instead of starting on my uni essay I looked at the Ribena bottle from my meal deal and realised the company was based at Stockley Park, just like our good friend VAR. I decided to do what any sane person would and write an essay on VAR for a referee forum instead. Feel free to agree, disagree or completely ignore and wonder what on earth I was thinking writing this, but I just wanted to get my thoughts and results at. I will add the disclaimer that the red card stats do not take into account those given as second yellows which seeing as they aren't affected by VAR means these stats aren't entirely true. I couldn't easily find the data and seeing as this isn't a dissertation I didn't go to my maximum effort to find those stats. I will also disclaim that I often refer to things as "given by VAR." I am not an idiot I understand VAR isnt some magic machine that overturns ref calls and that it is still the referee team who decide, its just easier to refer to it that way. But anyway, here are the stats.
Stats
I looked at the three seasons before VAR for my control data. On average 42.3 red cards were given (range 39-47) and 96.3 penalties (range 80-106) were awarded per season.
In 19-20, 44 red cards were awarded. Only 38 were awarded by the on field ref, with 3 of those overturned and 9 given by VAR. In 20-21, 47 red cards were awarded, with just 32 awarded by the on field ref, 2 overturned by VAR and 17 awarded by VAR. In 21-22, 42 red cards were awarded, with 32 awarded by the on field ref, 3 overturned, and 13 awarded by VAR.
So in total, 44.3 red cards have been shown on average in the 3 full seasons since VAR was introduced. This is relatively similar to the pre VAR average and falls into the range. The amount of red cards shown in the 3 seasons also falls into the range. However, in all 3 seasons, the amount of red cards shown on field is below the range, as is the average shown of 34. This data seems to indicate that referees were giving less red cards than they were before the introduction of VAR, despite the fact that with VAR the amount of red cards shown is similar to pre VAR. This helps the idea that referees were relying on VAR as a safety net. As does the fact that only 8 red cards were overturned by VAR in those 3 seasons, compared to 39 that VAR gave a red card to. Overall in the 149 red card situations, the referee was determined to have made a CLEAR AND OBVIOUS error in 31.5% of them.
As for penalties, in 19-20, 92 were awarded, with 77 awarded on the field, 7 overturned and 22 given by VAR. In 20-21, 124 penalties were awarded, with 117 penalties given on field, 22 of those overturned, and 29 of those given by VAR. In 21-22, 103 penalties were awarded, with 74 awarded on the field, 9 overturned, and 38 given by VAR.
The apparently insane penalty year of 20-21 hurts the ability to take findings here. Our average is 106.3 penalties awarded, which is higher than our range showing more penalties have been awarded since the introduction of VAR. Barring 20-21 which is above the range, the other two seasons all fall into the range as well. In 19-20 and 21-22 the amount of penalties awarded on field was below average and below the range, but this wasn't the case in 21-22, which actually saw more given. The average on field penalties awarded was 89.3 which is still below our average, but makes it hard to draw a complete conclusion as it is still in the range. Overall we have 408 penalty situations here, with the referee determined to have made a CLEAR AND OBVIOUS error in 31.1% of them. 38 penalties were overturned and 89 given by VAR
With 3 seasons of pre VAR and 3 seasons of post VAR, what can we conclude. The average amount of red cards and penalties shown on field has been less in the VAR seasons than it was pre VAR. With VAR however, the numbers are relatively similar, perhaps suggesting it is not a case of players getting better behaved. With penalties its harder to conclude due to the average still falling into the range, but with red cards the data is clear. Also the amount of penalties and red cards given by VAR is much much higher than the amount of penalties and red cards overturned by VAR. To play devils advocate I will argue both sides. In theory you would expect the numbers to be similar as refs should make an equal number of clear and obvious errors on both sides. The fact they don't suggests they are relying on a VAR safety net. However, as said earlier, refs will give pens and red cards if they are 100% certain, so it makes sense that they would be unlikely to make a clear and obvious error when awarding one. The other factor to look at is the high amount of CLEAR AND OBVIOUS errors made by the ref, not just mistakes, but clear and obvious ones. However of course the data does not look at every time a player goes down in the box and the ref waves it off and is backed by VAR, so the actual number will be lower, although VAR being involved to such a high extent is still concerning.
However, this argument has been less heard this season, so have things changed? There have been 231/380 games played this season, and we have seen 19 red cards and 52 penalties. This puts us on track for 31.3 red cards and 85.5 penalties for the season. The first thing to conclude would be the large reduction in red cards compared to previous seasons, and the fact the penalties awarded is less than what we have seen. However looking at the VAR stats, 17 red cards on field were awarded by refs, with 2 overturned and 4 given by VAR and of the penalties, 44 pens were given on field, with 9 overturned and 17 given by VAR. The difference between overturned and given is definitely less but its hard to actually draw conclusions without the full season and frankly, I am now questioning why I have wasted a good hour of my life on this.
Discuss what you want, ignore it, question my life choices idc, just thought these stats were interesting.
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