Well, it's holding. So the DOGSO changes don't apply.
With DOGSO, there's a point where it clearly is an OGSO, and a point where it clearly isn't. Many scenarios fall in between.
In those scenarios, as well as using our personal judgement (which others disagree with), we consider the nature of the match and offence. In a position where you could potentially at a stretch argue that it wasn't DOGSO, and it's just a carelessly mistimed foul, low grade match, 10-0 in the final minute, that sort of thing? Yeah, that might change our approach. Which is fine given it can be subjective determining if there is an OGSO. Strictly speaking it's wrong, but there's a point where we get to apply pressure to the laws to get them to bend to our will. And that's a good thing.
The purpose to my little diatribe is that the nature of the offence matters. In those scenarios where I could consider that it is or isn't an OGSO, then I'm more likely to swing towards no-OGSO if it's a carelessly mistimed foul than when it's clear the fouler has malicious intent.
And that's because the LOTG used to actually state that (paraphrased) the reason for the red card was because foully denying a goal was one of the most heinous acts of the game so it punishes the intent behind the action.
Here, the direction alone is in that grey area. Pushing towards no OGSO, but not enough to state, inarguably, that there is no OGSO.
The actions of the keeper - not even pretending to go for the ball but trying to cheat the opponents out of a goal - mean that I really have no reason whatsoever to be sending the benefit of the doubt his way. It's going the other way. Because let's be honest - he deserves to go, by the spirit of the law, and the area is grey under the letter of the law.
For me, running away from goal - yes - but players were never required to be running directly at the net. At the time of the foul, he was still in a position where he could easily put the ball into the net with his next touch. Running away from goal, but still facing it enough to score.
So it really comes down to the 2nd defender. Given that he was only level with the attacker at the time the foul started, he isn't in a position to stop the ball.
So, it's a red for me.