Yeah there's something odd between the 28k for 2014-15 and:
I'm in close contact with colleagues and friends in two of the worst hit areas in the world, Milan and Madrid where the deaths are climbing at a rapid rate.Can you cite this? Everything I've read has it lower than that
The BBC are keeping up their usual propaganda efforts by showing footage of every individual in hospital from the low risk age groups
Scaring people into distancing compliance. The fatality rate of under-50's is extremely low on a downward exponential scale
The rhetoric from Government has changed somewhat. Boris is starting to leak bits and pieces. It seems they're targeting total suppression (zero cases) and 20000 deaths in this first wave. Followed up by tactics published widely (e.g. The Lancet) to avoid or rapidly suppress secondary outbreaks using various tactics without having to go back to lock-down
The problem with the 'do nothing' approach, is once we're on that rollercoaster, we ain't getting off
The problem with 'mitigation' is 'suppression' quickly becomes out of reach. The good thing about 'suppression', is if it fails, it's a very good head-start WRT 'mitigation'
It still seems like there's very little account being taken of the consequences
Well for starters, see the video in post #237. It's also a figure cited by the Imperial College study:Can you cite this? Everything I've read has it lower than that
However, as that quote also mentions, there's a possible range of numbers - as another study points out:On the basis of the observed three-day doubling time in the incidence of deaths across Europe, we here use a central estimate of R0 to 3.0 and investigate scenarios with R0 between 2.4 and 3.3.
It’s important to realize that both the basic and effective R0 are situation-dependent. It’s affected by the properties of the pathogen, such as how infectious it is. It’s affected by the host population – for instance, how susceptible people are due to nutritional status or other illnesses that may compromise one’s immune system. And it’s affected by the environment, including things like demographics, socioeconomic and climatic factors.
The 17,000 figure for average annual flu deaths in England comes from the official figures published by Public Health England.I'd be interested to know your source for those figures mate.
The ones you've given suggest an average annual death toll (for England) of around 3000.
Coronavirus & Influenza
Mortality attributable to flu in England & WalesAlthough mortality data is available in England and Wales with primary cause of death, underreporting of influenza-related deaths is common – either influenza infection is not diagnosed by the clinician or, if influenza is detected, a secondary complication resulting in mortality might be reported rather than the infection. Therefore statistical modelling is needed to indirectly estimate the population-level burden due to influenza and adjust for other factors which temporally coincide with influenza and impact on mortality ...
The FluMoMo modelInfection with the influenza virus may often lead to exacerbation of underlying chronic conditions or to secondary bacterial infections.
Therefore, influenza is often not recorded as the primary cause of death, and using cause-specific data as an outcome may lead to underestimation of influenza-associated mortality.
If you have anything showing how the Oxford site arrives at their figure, I'd be interested to see it, so we can compare their methodology.Since 2009, the network for European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) has monitored weekly excess all-cause mortality.
Within the EuroMOMO network, we developed a model to estimate influenza-associated mortality based on influenza activity in the population while controlling for extreme ambient temperatures, the FluMOMO model.
Fire safetyAnyone else think we've strayed into another one of Peter's areas of expertise? I am genuinely impressed.
What other areas of expertise do we have on this forum.
Now if anyone wants to discuss GCSE Maths, I'll be over here.