EPL points to guarantee survival

[Big Cat]

Woke up last night at 4am
Got to thinking if 40 points was enough to make Newcastle safe at this time. Thought not. Then got to thinking about next season and how many points we need to guarantee safety
Decided it was 65
Maybe @RefJef can validate
Interestingly, I'm not sure 64 is enough
I went back to sleep eventually!

 

[RefJef]

Burnley currently have 28 points, with six games to go, so they could finish with 46, so Newcastle are still not mathematically safe, but they are safe and will not go down.

I’ve never actually crunched the numbers to check this (perhaps I should!) but as a rule of thumb, if you finish with an average of 1 point per game you will not be relegated. So in the Prem you need 38 points for survival by RefJef’s law, and 46 points in the Championship, League 1 & League 2.

A quick look at the current league tables suggest that the ”law” will hold again this year and all relegated teams will have less than an average of a point per game. It might be close in the prem, but I can’t see Burnley getting 11 points from 6 games and Everton getting 10 points from 7 and Leeds getting 6 from 6.

In League 1, the law will fail if Gillingham get 6 points from 2 games and Fleetwood get 9 from 3 games. Unlikely, but still possible. In the Championship and League 2, the law will hold again this season.

It’s also quite a useful indicator during the season - if your team is averaging about 1 or less points per game, you are in trouble, if your points are above the amount of games played, you are (for now, at least) safe.

 

[Anubis]

Someone like Steve Bruce would have had them safe by now...

 

[Big Cat]

Burnley currently have 28 points, with six games to go, so they could finish with 46, so Newcastle are still not mathematically safe, but they are safe and will not go down.

I’ve never actually crunched the numbers to check this (perhaps I should!) but as a rule of thumb, if you finish with an average of 1 point per game you will not be relegated. So in the Prem you need 38 points for survival by RefJef’s law, and 46 points in the Championship, League 1 & League 2.

A quick look at the current league tables suggest that the ”law” will hold again this year and all relegated teams will have less than an average of a point per game. It might be close in the prem, but I can’t see Burnley getting 11 points from 6 games and Everton getting 10 points from 7 and Leeds getting 6 from 6.

In League 1, the law will fail if Gillingham get 6 points from 2 games and Fleetwood get 9 from 3 games. Unlikely, but still possible. In the Championship and League 2, the law will hold again this season.

It’s also quite a useful indicator during the season - if your team is averaging about 1 or less points per game, you are in trouble, if your points are above the amount of games played, you are (for now, at least) safe.

My thinking on how many points are needed to stay up...
All teams beat one another, except the bottom two who get beat twice off everyone else. Doesn't matter who wins between the bottom two
That leaves top 18 teams on 63 points (17x3)+(2x3)+(2x3), all of whom could be relegated on goal difference. So 64 points is enough cos that assumes this rather exceptional scenario hasn't happened. Man City & Liverpool seem safe from this eventuality, but worthy of consideration for the rest of us.
The nights fly by around my house

 

[RustyRef]

Teams have gone down on the supposed magic 40 point total, but it is very rare. Sunderland in 96/97, Bolton in 97/98, and West Ham 02/03 (42 points). It only happens when the league gets bunched up, i.e. no runaway leader(s) and no team(s) marooned at the bottom. While ever Man City and Liverpool continue to dominate it will be much lower than that total.

Everton are now in serious, serious trouble. Three away games at Liverpool, Leicester and Arsenal, difficult to see where their points are coming from. Whereas Burnley have Watford and Newcastle (who may well be on the beach by then) to play, and of course they still have to play each other.

 

[one]

My thinking on how many points are needed to stay up...
All teams beat one another, except the bottom two who get beat twice off everyone else. Doesn't matter who wins between the bottom two
That leaves top 18 teams on 63 points (17x3)+(2x3)+(2x3), all of whom could be relegated on goal difference. So 64 points is enough cos that assumes this rather exceptional scenario hasn't happened. Man City & Liverpool seem safe from this eventuality, but worthy of consideration for the rest of us.
The nights fly by around my house

Correct. And to think of possibilities, while you need 64 points to guarantee non-relegation, you could also win the league by just 38 points. Mind boggling!

But the chances of the latter happening is 1 in about 20000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 seasons*, that's 181 zeros. I think we will be waiting a little while before a 63 point relegation or a 38 point title.

*assuming the chance of a draw is 1 in 3 games