But you can’t change the restart of play.
If the ball goes out for a throw to team A, and before play has been restarted a player from team A headbutts a player from team B you can’t cancel the throw and award a free kick.
The same principle applies here, the ball isn’t in play so you would go for a retake.
That isn't the same principle though. For your example, the ball is out of play because it has not been thrown back into the field of play.
In @GraemeS example the ball is in play from a FK when it is kicked and clearly moves. So when the ball is kicked at me, it is in play as soon as it moves and therefore I can give a direct free kick along with the red card.
And on the OP, I think it all depends on the referee on the day and the atmosphere of the game. I would be equally comfortable selling a retake and a YC or simply a retake.