How long before Coronavirus impacts Football?

[GraemeS]

Good point. I don't get what the outcome might be. The Grauniad's piece said:

"In a statement Uefa said: “The ideal scenario, should the pandemic situation permit it, is to have the currently suspended domestic competitions completed ... in their original format. Should this outcome not be possible, it would be preferable that suspended domestic competitions would restart with a different format in a manner which would still facilitate clubs to qualify on sporting merit.”

The statement goes on, however: “While using best efforts to complete the domestic competitions, national associations and/or leagues might have legitimate reasons to prematurely terminate their domestic competitions.”

Uefa then requests that, if terminated leagues are to submit clubs to European competition in the 2021-22 season, they do so “based on sporting merit”, determining final placings “on objective, transparent and non-discriminatory principles”. While leaving open some flexibility, the recommendation would seem to encourage a solution where an incomplete league table is organised on a points-per-game basis."


My bold to highlight the bit confused me and I thought was saying - e.g. playoffs instead of the 10 games...

As far as I understand it "sporting merit" is mentioned in order to rule out either drawing lots, or voiding the season and entering teams into the next European competitions based on the 18/19 season results.

So, most preferred: Finish the season by playing all remaining matches
Next preferred: Tweak the format so that some (but not all) matches can be played to determine final qualifying positions
Next : End the season now with final qualifying positions determined by some sporting criteria (ie either current position or points per game)
Not allowed: Void the season and re-enter the same teams as last season

You'll notice as well that the most preferred option also involves playing the most games, hence why less preferred options might have to be considered.

It's also worth remembering that all UEFA care about is qualification into European competitions - so as far as they're concerned, who comes 1st to 7th (or 8th if we assume Manchester City don't get their ban overturned/delayed). Although it might make a significant difference to the teams involved in terms of prize money, there's no requirement for leagues to classify the remaining teams unless they need to for their own reasons. Which means, things like promotion and relegation are still entirely up to the FA and are entirely separate from the statements put out by UEFA. And if necessary, can still be decided on non-sporting criteria....

 

[Sheffields Finest]

Without finishing the season every other eventuality has unintended winners and losers, some are fairly rewarded, some obviously won't be because results outcomes are all a guess!! Who knew Leeds would blow up with 10 games to go last season, who knew in 2006 (Tevez season) that we were 10 points above West Ham with 10 games to go and still got relegated. Who saw Jimmy Glass score a 94th minute winner. Football can be a very cruel game sometimes!!

Skip to 25'.25'' and see the ref get absolutely flattened in the celebration....

 

[santa sangria]

Bundesliga 'ready to return on 9 May'

The Bundesliga is hoping to return to action behind closed doors next month, but what challenges does it face to make it reality?

www.bbc.com

About the German plan to start behind closed doors in May

But this bit grabbed my attention:
"According to an internal DFL report from late March, at least 13 of the 36 Bundesliga and second-division sides face insolvency by May or June, if the season does not restart soon. Twelve of these 13 clubs have already guaranteed the fourth and last instalment of this season's television rights money to creditors.

However, the main television rights holders, Sky, Eurosport and the public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, have not paid that instalment of a total of €304m (£265m). The remaining nine matchdays equal exactly a quarter of the season worth that fourth instalment.

The payment to the DFL was initially scheduled for 10 April. The DFL has now reached an agreement with Sky, ARD and ZDF about 2 May being the new day of payment, shortly after the restart of the season gets the go ahead."

Ouch. I wonder what they negotiated. And I wonder what's happening with the EPL rights holders and payments...

 

[santa sangria]

No French footy for L1 or 2 until August.
La Liiga have had to put their testing/training plans on hold because the govt won't let private companies use tests in case the state needs them.

Are the Germans out on their right now trying to ramp up testing and training and aiming for May behind closed doors?

 

[arbitre]

Just to correct you about France. It is until September, so likely all pro football here will now be finished for 2019/20. The measures actually cover ANY event likely to attract more than 5000 people, so will also include other sports, events and tourist attractions.

 

[Big Cat]

Not that I'd listen to anything from anyone wearing a FIFA badge, but I said earlier in the week that football is buggered. Dutch and French, the first to accept reality (with Belgium close to following suit). Even behind closed doors, playing football anytime soon is akin to a square peg in a round hole.
I'm not even sure financial pressure will be enough to get any league completed
Selfishly hoping I'm wrong of course

 

[Sheffields Finest]

Poor poor Leeds if the seasons really cancelled, they’ll be tears down Kirstall Road for sure. All that hope, the look on their faces, I really hope Sky catches the good teary bits on that documentary!

 

[arbitre]

I suggested to my French 'county' back when everything was stopped, that they should just freeze the 2019/20 season until more was known. I suggested that football might not be able to restart for at least a year, so they might be able to finish this season from March 2021.
Everybody thought I was mad!!!!!!

 

[Sheffields Finest]

I suggested to my French 'county' back when everything was stopped, that they should just freeze the 2019/20 season until more was known. I suggested that football might not be able to restart for at least a year, so they might be able to finish this season from March 2021.
Everybody thought I was mad!!!!!!

Cet arbitre est fou......mais pas si fou!

 

[GraemeS]

No French footy for L1 or 2 until August.
La Liiga have had to put their testing/training plans on hold because the govt won't let private companies use tests in case the state needs them.

Are the Germans out on their right now trying to ramp up testing and training and aiming for May behind closed doors?

It's worth pointing out that Germany as a whole has probably handled coronavirus better than any other major European nation. Slightly larger population than the UK, but they have reported a similar number of cases (probably due to a much higher level of testing picking up a greater % of the mild cases that are going unreported in the UK) with around a quarter the deaths of the UK. And they had managed to flatten their curve by the end of March/early April, you could argue that the UK are only maybe reaching that point now.

Basically, if any European league is going to manage to finish the season normally, it'll be Germany. There's definitely a case for saying that they've gone early (the Guardian are today suggesting that the overall infection rate in Germany might be on it's way back up https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-stay-home-amid-covid-19-infection-rate-fears), but comparisons to other leagues miss out on the more general context of how different countries have handled it.

 

[Justylove]

It's worth pointing out that Germany as a whole has probably handled coronavirus better than any other major European nation. Slightly larger population than the UK, but they have reported a similar number of cases (probably due to a much higher level of testing picking up a greater % of the mild cases that are going unreported in the UK) with around a quarter the deaths of the UK. And they had managed to flatten their curve by the end of March/early April, you could argue that the UK are only maybe reaching that point now.

Basically, if any European league is going to manage to finish the season normally, it'll be Germany. There's definitely a case for saying that they've gone early (the Guardian are today suggesting that the overall infection rate in Germany might be on it's way back up https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-stay-home-amid-covid-19-infection-rate-fears), but comparisons to other leagues miss out on the more general context of how different countries have handled it.

It's interesting looking more further afield as well.

Singapore was one of the initial countries that was perceived to have handled the situation well, however now they are starting to see a spike in cases.

It's difficult whilst we are in the midst of this to see what approach has been the best one, as the potential is that some of the measures taken in some countries have just kicked the can down the road.

 

[Sheffields Finest]

Anyone notice the news that the average deaths in Italy was down in the first quarter of 2020 from the last 5 years??
This is a very serious world problem but deaths do happen naturally and who knows how many CV deaths are been attributed to everything at the moment especially out of hospitals! They certainly are not doing autopsies at the moment so surely it’s pure guesswork on many people’s parts! Keep safe everyone

 

[one]

Anyone notice the news that the average deaths in Italy was down in the first quarter of 2020 from the last 5 years??

This makes complete sense to me if true. They have less deaths because they have put living on pause. A large % of human deaths attribute to activities that have been restricted in 2020.Q1.

 

[GraemeS]

It's interesting looking more further afield as well.

Singapore was one of the initial countries that was perceived to have handled the situation well, however now they are starting to see a spike in cases.

It's difficult whilst we are in the midst of this to see what approach has been the best one, as the potential is that some of the measures taken in some countries have just kicked the can down the road.

That's definitely a fair comment, it's too early to draw any definite conclusions. Again, you could argue that turning one large spike into a number of small, manageable spikes until a vaccine/treatment is developed is one strategy certain countries have deliberately targeted, but it's impossible to say at this point. All we can say now is that Germany's initial response seems to have been good - we don't yet know if that's going to lead to another small spike, a further large delayed spike, or if that's going to be the end of it for them.

 

[GraemeS]

Anyone notice the news that the average deaths in Italy was down in the first quarter of 2020 from the last 5 years??
This is a very serious world problem but deaths do happen naturally and who knows how many CV deaths are been attributed to everything at the moment especially out of hospitals! They certainly are not doing autopsies at the moment so surely it’s pure guesswork on many people’s parts! Keep safe everyone

I'm not sure there's any truth in that and I'm not sure what the benefit is of downplaying the extent of this. See the following analysis: https://voxeu.org/article/covid-19-italy-analysis-death-registry-data

 

[RefJef]

I used the Office for National Statistics weekly death figures to compare deaths per week since 2010.

of course there is some variation across the different years, but there is a clear trend of deaths throughout the year.

Until you reach the weekending 27 March 2020, when the death rate takes a significant upwards turn for the worse.

You can see my graphs here on my blog:

Covid 19 stats, part 2

Data can tell us many things, but we need to understand what data we are looking at, and what the data is showing us. As the Covid crisis has continued, there has been debate and discussion about h...

www.amathsteacherwrites.co.uk

I think the graphs are fairly tellin.

 

[Mr Dean]

I used the Office for National Statistics weekly death figures to compare deaths per week since 2010.

of course there is some variation across the different years, but there is a clear trend of deaths throughout the year.

Until you reach the weekending 27 March 2020, when the death rate takes a significant upwards turn for the worse.

You can see my graphs here on my blog:

Covid 19 stats, part 2

Data can tell us many things, but we need to understand what data we are looking at, and what the data is showing us. As the Covid crisis has continued, there has been debate and discussion about h...

www.amathsteacherwrites.co.uk

I think the graphs are fairly tellin.

Thanks for producing those graphs - they do tell a story. The Financial Times completed similar analysis and put the true Covid-19 death figure at 41,000 (as of 21 April). Ironically, they called it a "conservative" estimate.

 

[Big Cat]

I used the Office for National Statistics weekly death figures to compare deaths per week since 2010.

of course there is some variation across the different years, but there is a clear trend of deaths throughout the year.

Until you reach the weekending 27 March 2020, when the death rate takes a significant upwards turn for the worse.

You can see my graphs here on my blog:

Covid 19 stats, part 2

Data can tell us many things, but we need to understand what data we are looking at, and what the data is showing us. As the Covid crisis has continued, there has been debate and discussion about h...

www.amathsteacherwrites.co.uk

I think the graphs are fairly tellin.

Wish we could see two lines, ten years from now
One showing the accumulated 'life years' lost to Covid
The other showing the same for life years lost to indirect causes. This would assume a baseline of zero life years lost according to the normal death rates of the different age groups
That said, in order to be representative, the analysis would have to be compared with computer models of the 'do nothing' approach (such a model would be difficult to postulate, even in hindsight)
Trouble is (although I'm unconvinced by the full-on suppression strategy), Government's can only base policy on foresight
It concerns me that, Democracies are only interested in the here and now, so Leaders won't adhere to what could be the best long-term policy
That's before quality of life is taken into account...

 

[RefJef]

Wish we could see two lines, ten years from now
One showing the accumulated 'life years' lost to Covid
The other showing the same for life years lost to indirect causes. This would assume a baseline of zero life years lost according to the normal death rates of the different age groups
That said, in order to be representative, the analysis would have to be compared with computer models of the 'do nothing' approach (such a model would be difficult to postulate, even in hindsight)
Trouble is (although I'm unconvinced by the full-on suppression strategy), Government's can only base policy on foresight
It concerns me that, Democracies are only interested in the here and now, so Leaders won't adhere to what could be the best long-term policy
That's before quality of life is taken into account...

you are are quite right - we won’t be able to draw any accurate conclusions until some time from now, when we can look back at the data from a historic perspective.

Forgive my morbid fascination with the numbers, but I am interested to see if/when the weekly deaths falls below the average, as this could tell us a lot. For example, if it (weekly deaths) drops (significantly) below average soon (say 6 to 12 months) it would suggest that many of those that died in the crisis would have died in the next 6 to 12 months under normal circumstances, however if the death rate stays at or above average it would suggest that many who died died much earlier than they would have done in normal circumstances.

However, I do fully appreciate that each piece of data is an individual tragedy

 

[Mintyref]

Did you note the announcement today that we can expect an estimated 18 000 additional deaths due to cancer because of the effect of the pandemic on early identification and treatment of them......wonder what the guesstimate will be for additional deaths due to untreated/identified heart disease, stroke etc and ultimately suicide?