I think you're dressing option 2 up a bitThere are two realistic possibilities.
1) AR1 told the CR that this needed to be a yellow.
or
2) The VAR broke protocol and suggested a 2nd yellow when it's not allowed. And Marciniak accepted the advice even though he knows it's not allowed. And the FIFA representative in the VAR room, four other on field match officials, three other match officials in the VAR room are going to cover for a clear violation of the protocols. And FIFA will cover it up
Call me crazy but I'm betting on option #1.
As Santa and I have asked, what is the nature of your VAR allegiance? Not since Baghdad Bob have i encountered such unwavering belief