The Ref Stop

Tossing of the Coin

The Ref Stop
RefJef said:
Agree with @Trip on this

I teach probability to A level ;)

(Rock, paper, scissors, however, is not random. On the very rare occasions I have forgotten my coin, I start my stopwatch and ask a captain to call odds or evens. I then stop the stopwatch and look to see if the seconds are an even or odd number. )
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You see this is the problem with you A Level people, you always look too deeply at things ;)
 
I don't teach probability, but I was a maths geek at school (A* GCSE, A level Maths and a B at AS Level Further Maths).
Can we all please agree that one of the most infuriating things regularly seen on the internet are the comments of 'the probability is 50/50, it either happens or it doesn't'...
 
RefereeX said:
I don't teach probability, but I was a maths geek at school (A* GCSE, A level Maths and a B at AS Level Further Maths).
Can we all please agree that one of the most infuriating things regularly seen on the internet are the comments of 'the probability is 50/50, it either happens or it doesn't'...
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100%! I understand it completely. I'm on track for the new equivalent of an A* at GCSE Maths & Further Maths so completely agree. Won't catch me teaching probability though!
 
There is an entire industry based on the fact that most people have a poor understanding of probability . . .

…and I still laugh every time this thread pops up with something new
 
RefereeX said:
I don't teach probability, but I was a maths geek at school (A* GCSE, A level Maths and a B at AS Level Further Maths).
Can we all please agree that one of the most infuriating things regularly seen on the internet are the comments of 'the probability is 50/50, it either happens or it doesn't'...
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The one that infuriates me is 'the laws of probability mean it's sure to happen soon' when talking about mutually independent events
 
I managed to say "home or away" instead of "heads or tails" for a cup semi final this season which caused huge confusion for both captains and myself for a the few seconds it took me to realise, thankfully we all laughed it off with a "lets try that again eh" but it was definitely not the way I wanted to start that game!

Ste
 
ChasObserverRefDeveloper said:
A question for our probability specialists, please.
The great majority of referees will ask the captain "Heads or tails?"
If they asked "Tails or heads?" (followed by "Eh?" from the captain😁) would the probability of the captain calling "Tails" increase?
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I’m currently tossing (pause for dramatic effect) a centenary Manx coin marvelously monikered, “Odin’s Raven”, that I found in my late (Manx) father’s belongings.

So, at 8:15 tonight, I will ask the away captain to choose between the dead queen and Odin’s boat. I usually roll with “princess or boat” (in the local lingo).
 
ChasObserverRefDeveloper said:
A question for our probability specialists, please.
The great majority of referees will ask the captain "Heads or tails?"
If they asked "Tails or heads?" (followed by "Eh?" from the captain😁) would the probability of the captain calling "Tails" increase?
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This is one for a human behaviour specialist, not a probability expert, but I think it would increase the chances of getting a response of 'Teads' or 'Hails'.
 
santa sangria said:
I’m currently tossing (pause for dramatic effect) a centenary Manx coin marvelously monikered, “Odin’s Raven”, that I found in my late (Manx) father’s belongings.

So, at 8:15 tonight, I will ask the away captain to choose between the dead queen and Odin’s boat. I usually roll with “princess or boat” (in the local lingo).
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8:16 pm kick-off is it? tut tut late :p Raven or Maven :D
 
Generally speaking, I follow this procedure for tossing the coin.
  • Ask the captains if there are any questions
  • Show both sides of the coin (I try to have a coin with two colors so I can say "red" and "gold" or "black" and "gray" instead of heads or tails)
  • Unless it's really windy (which happens a lot where I live), I toss the coin and catch it by covering my bottom hand with my top hand. I don't move the coin to the back of my hand. If it's windy, I'll let the coin drop. Personally, I'd prefer to catch the coin but think I'd look more foolish missing the coin on a windy day.
I've never really understood the idea that catching the coin removes the randomness. Yes, the coin hitting the ground definitely make things more random. But if I catch the coin like I do - with a little give in my bottom hand - I don't ever remember thinking, "Wow - that's five heads in a row."
 
RefIADad said:
Generally speaking, I follow this procedure for tossing the coin.
  • Ask the captains if there are any questions
  • Show both sides of the coin (I try to have a coin with two colors so I can say "red" and "gold" or "black" and "gray" instead of heads or tails)
  • Unless it's really windy (which happens a lot where I live), I toss the coin and catch it by covering my bottom hand with my top hand. I don't move the coin to the back of my hand. If it's windy, I'll let the coin drop. Personally, I'd prefer to catch the coin but think I'd look more foolish missing the coin on a windy day.
I've never really understood the idea that catching the coin removes the randomness. Yes, the coin hitting the ground definitely make things more random. But if I catch the coin like I do - with a little give in my bottom hand - I don't ever remember thinking, "Wow - that's five heads in a row."
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Did a coin flip today. I decided to let the coin land on the ground. Nothing disastrous happened. But I am still thinking about it.

I have a pile of 2p coins I use (1 at a time of course). As I had a handful of pretty different coloured coins, but I lose 1 every 20 matches. So I decided a 2p will do.
 
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