I disagree. Whilst 'unnatural position' handballs are (now by definition) deemed to be non deliberate, the reason that they are penalised is that they are seen to be the result of a choice by the defender to put their arm in that unnatural position. Players are allowed to have their arms in all manner of natural positions ... therefore there is an element of calculation when they end up in an unnatural one.
But then it wouldn't be "the result of a player attempting to play fairly". If the "unnaturally bigger" wording involves "an element of calculation" then that's not "non deliberate" and not playing fairly.
Ok, I actually think we're very close on this one! In reality, the whole concept of 'trying to play fairly' is probably unhelpful and we should instead talk about 'footballing actions' and 'non-footballing actions'.
Let's think about this in non handball offences outside of the penalty area. If a defender "attempts" to play fairly (attempt to play the ball with foot) but still commits a DOGSO offence, say careless kicking, outside the PA, they are sent off. Nothing new here.
I like that, but think how many one on ones are OGSOs but don't result in a goal, especially at lower levels. A sending off, especially early in a game, for an accidental handball "when trying to play fairly" really does not shout "spirit of the game".Ok, I actually think we're very close on this one! In reality, the whole concept of 'trying to play fairly' is probably unhelpful and we should instead talk about 'footballing actions' and 'non-footballing actions'.
For DOGSO outside the penalty area, we simply send off for any offence, whether footballing action or not. Deliberate trip, accidental trip, deliberate handball, unnatural position handball ... all of these are treated equally and result in a red card, not because of the intent but because of the outcome (the denial of the OGSO). You can certainly argue that it feels harsh on the defender to penalise the two footballing actions (accidental trip / unnatural position handball) the same way as if they'd punched someone but it seems eminently fair to the attacker who's been denied his moment of glory! At least the punching would typically result in more significant post game sanctions
For DOGSO inside the penalty area, we send off for the non footballing actions (deliberate handball, holding, pushing etc) and caution for the footballing actions (unnatural position handball, foul challenge for the ball).
And within your question, you have your eminently practical answer! If you, as the referee, believe that (as a result of the skill level of the players) the opportunity is 'just' a GSO rather than an OGSO, you have the justification you desire for giving an SPA YC instead. And I totally agree that taking into account the likelihood of the attacker gaining control is a key driver of the decision.
